IMC Logistics Market Update
IMC Logistics – Market Update - June 18, 2026
Today's market is sending a misleading signal. Intermodal and drayage capacity looked open to start the year, and rates have stayed soft into 2026, but that is not holding. Several forces are converging to tighten capacity and raise costs, and the swing is happening fast.
These issues are pressing on freight capacity simultaneously: an elevated wave of inbound ocean freight arriving at U.S. ports, and a shrinking pool of available truck drivers. Here is what is behind each one and what it means for your supply chain planning.
Freight Volumes - Where the Market is Today and Where it's Heading
The landside freight market is emerging from nearly four years of rate recession and volume stagnation. Drayage capacity did not sit idle during that time. The drayage market contracted, driver rosters thinned, and many drayage providers closed. Now, rising diesel prices have accelerated a shift of freight from truckload to intermodal, and that volume is landing on a drayage market that is working to recover capacity.
Spot rates on the FTL and LTL markets have also spiked, and some drivers are moving to this business instead of drayage. Demand is being pulled forward into an earlier peak with increased imports already on the water. Many shippers are accelerating fall and holiday cargo to get ahead of tariffs, using the current Middle East ceasefire window to rebuild their lean inventories.
The numbers reflect how quickly conditions are changing. Spot rates jumped 19% in just 60 days (April through June), illustrating how rapidly the market is tightening.
| INDICATOR | VALUE | % CHANGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| OTRI (Tender Rejection Rate) | 17.12% | +1.71% MoM | -0.65% WoW | TIGHT |
| OTVI (Tender Volume Index) | 11,706.70 | +4.07% MoM | -1.43% WoW | RISING |
| Van Spot Rate Per Mile (NTI) | $3.67 / Mile | +63.1% YoY | SURGING |
| Van Contract Rate Per Mile | $2.58 / Mile | +11.2% YoY | ELEVATED |
| DOE Diesel Price Per Gallon | $5.21 / Gallon | -$0.14 WoW | -$0.43 MoM | EASING |
| National Spot Rate Trend (Apr–Jun) | $3.08 → $3.27 → $3.67 | +19% in 60 days | SURGING |
The June import forecast was revised up to 2.25 million TEUs, an early peak expected to run through August before softening. The result is a narrower, earlier peak that pressures ports, rail, and inland all at once.
Costs are also rising independent of demand. Trans-Pacific rates are already up roughly 80% to the West Coast and 60% to the East Coast in the past month. Fuel is volatile amid the Middle East disruption and costs keep climbing as the pool of fully compliant carriers narrows.
Customers should anticipate a more constrained capacity environment as compliant well-insured, asset-backed capacity becomes limited sooner and normalizes more slowly. We also expect upward pressure on rates and accessorial charges ahead of full demand recovery and increased volatility by lane. Proactive planning will be essential to secure capacity and disruption.
The Shrinking Driver Base
Two regulatory changes are simultaneously tightening the pool of drivers legally eligible to haul freight, and their effects are compounding. Each is designed to keep unsafe or unqualified drivers off the road and are consistent with how IMC approaches hiring. Eligibility requirements are being tightened for the industry overall, creating a driver pool that is shrinking from multiple directions at once.
English Language Proficiency (ELP) & Non-Domiciled CDL Requirements
The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) has long required commercial drivers to speak and read English well enough to communicate with law enforcement and understand cargo instructions; an IMC Logistics standard since our founding. An executive order in April 2025 made the enforcement non-negotiable nationwide, and thousands of drivers industrywide have been placed out of service for violations.
Simultaneously, FMCSA’s non-domiciled CDL Final Rule, effective March 16, 2026, limits CDL eligibility to holders of specific work visas. FMCSA estimates that roughly 194,000 of the approximately 200,000 current non-domiciled CDL holders - about 97% - will be ineligible to renew, reducing that population to approximately 6,000 eligible work visas over time.
Department of Transportation (DOT) Drug & Alcohol Clearinghouse Rule
The FMCSA's Clearinghouse-II rule, effective November 2024, requires states to revoke CDLs of drivers in prohibited status for drug or alcohol violations who have not completed the return-to-duty process. This too mirrors standards IMC has maintained throughout our history. As of January 2026, more than 202,000 CDL holders are legally barred from operating a commercial motor vehicle.
How IMC Is Responding
We are not sitting still. IMC is actively increasing our driver hiring efforts to grow our capacity and reduce the impact of the tighter driver pool on our customers.
We are also strengthening partnerships with trusted smaller carriers to expand our network where it matters most. These relationships allow us to move more freight reliably, even as available capacity tightens industrywide.
We are asking customers to share more lead time on upcoming shipments -- particularly for time-sensitive cargo. The more visibility we have into your freight calendar, the better we can position capacity.
We are also utilizing our operational centers nationwide to hold and store containers as needed, giving customers greater flexibility when timing is uncertain. We will recommend more pre-pulls to get ahead of terminal congestion and demurrage.
Finally, we are prioritizing strategic, long-term customer relationships over spot market freight. Our commitment is to the customers who grow with us -- and in a tighter capacity environment, that focus allows us to deliver more consistently for the people who have made our business successful and whom we want to continue to work with for the long term.
Thank you for your continued trust and partnership. If you have any questions, please contact your IMC Logistics Representative.